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Introducing Alfa: Dev Update.09

Today I can officially introduce the feature that has been live in the Dapp for the last few days. Say hello to Alfa.

Monitoring new tokens and pools is a fine degen activity, but more often than not it is just garbage there. It is time to start looking back, at the things that are already in circulation.

Alfa Tokens

Within the Token Monitor you will find the new Alfa Tokens tab. The data there is based on approx. the last hour of retail trades from Uniswap and Sushiswap. By retail I mean actual humans. Front-runs and wash-trades are excluded to the most extent possible.

The default sort displays the token list according to the most positive capital flow. You can also see how many different tokens have been recently traded. Sometimes it is more than 500. Sometimes it is less than 150 (this can be a good moment to look at them and trade, as usually this is the time more optimised traders purchase specific tokens, while gas is low).

The best play here is observing the capital flow, the BUY-SELL Volume. If a token of your interest has a negative capital flow, before you buy first observe it until the capital flow goes positive. This can indicate a reversal and you can ride an upwards wave until the capital flow goes negative again, which in turn may be a good moment to sell.

Alfa Pools

Within the Pools Monitor you will find the new Alfa Pools tab. The data there is similar to the Alfa Tokens, but is extended by the Liquidity size and Hourly APR – the projected 1-year earnings from providing liquidity in the pool without compounding, based on the volume from the last hour.

High Hourly APR indicates very active pools with low liquidity. Most often this means new tokens with high hype and volatility. Degens’ favourites.

More Alfa

One thing missing from these two new tabs is a visualisation of change. After all, it is hard to stare at the monitor all the time, and what is really important are the upward-downward changes of these indicators. This is coming.

Another tab I want to introduce soon is the Alfa Stream. This will basically show you every Uniswap and Sushiswap human trade, with easy filter to extract known wallets, whale trades and look deeper into specific tokens or pools.

What about AIM?

Like I mentioned today on Telegram, I may be able to launch AIM Pilot by the end of March, using a proxy contract that would lock-in the xTRND and staking participants, but would enable DAI transfer to an end user address. This is not optimal in terms of security, decentralisation and non-custodial contracts, but should streamline AIM public testing.

Macro Alfa

How much time do we have? Well, we will know soon enough. If by early March the total crypto market cap goes back down to $1T, we are done. Winter is back.

However, if that does not happen, and the total market cap keeps the upward trend, we should reach the top sometime in August.

How much time do we really have? Well, my mind is planning for the next 4 years. The thing to look at will be 2025-27.

I do not want to be misunderstood, and I am not a prophet, but the deconstruction of the Old World Order that was very visible in the last 12 months, has been 20 years in the making. Believe it or not, but the first crack, leading to the collapse of the world economy as we know it, happened on 9/11.

On that day the US empire survived, but lost on 3 fronts: its invincibility image has been badly disturbed; its war machine marched en-masse outside its borders at an immense cost to the treasury; and its powerful financial market has been put on the path to collapse thanks to the unprecedented government intervention both towards the elites (saving the stocks) and the people (inflating the housing market).

The bubble popped in 2008. It took the system around a decade to heal, but the scars did not go away. When the Wuhan Virus turned into a global pandemic, the system was still not fully recovered, and it showed. The Old Word Order, the global village, quickly shut itself down, and chaos ensued.

But chaos is a ladder, after all. It is hard to say without evidence, but the parties that benefit the most from the very rapid way in which the world had to adapt to the new circumstances, seem to be China, Russia and Iran. The global eyes have turned within, everyone trying to fight the Wuhan Virus.

Coincidently, the three places at which the next world conflict may erupt are the South-East China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suwalki Gap.

China would like to control its near-seas to push out the presence of the very powerful US Fleet, and exert more control over its neighbours, especially Taiwan. At the same time, pushing out the US Fleet will help in implementing their Belt and Road initiative.

Iran would very much like to control the Strait of Hormuz and freely export its oil to the highest bidder. A less US-dominated sea route there would fit nicely with the Belt and Road initiative as well.

Russia would really like to rebuild its old area of influence from the Soviet era, to surround itself with satellite republics, insulating its core state from adversaries, mainly NATO, and making it easier to transfer natural resources out. The ante is up, since USA has to flirt with Russia to counter China. In the event of a Russian-Chinese alliance and a favourable EU, and the Belt and Road initiative in place, the resulting free-trade area will dominate the rest of the world by far.

The USA no longer has the biggest and most dominant economy in the world, but it still has the strongest army.

Adding fuel to the fire is the general public, who has been very much stress-tested by the pandemic countermeasures, lockdowns, limitations, and the economic impact. With many clear examples of elites exerting their status and influence to get more, have more and live more, while the regular Joe is silenced and stuck in his home, the general public is not happy.

We have at most 4 years before the storm. What we are doing today in crypto is not just gambling. We are building our future. Who of us and what of it survives, is up to us.

But the Old World days are numbered. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

Dracarys.

Impermanent Loss is good for you

There is a widely popular article about the Impermanent Loss by Bancor that is usually shared on Telegram when someone asks why his tokens are disappearing after they pooled it on Uniswap. The top claim of Bancor’s article is that “users who provide liquidity to AMMs can see their staked tokens lose value compared to simply holding the tokens on their own.” This is one of the most repeated claims in DeFi. But it is also inaccurate.

Or at least it is not exactly true in the context of providing liquidity to the UniswapV2 pools. Let me explain with two pools similar to the ones in the Bancor’s article: LINK/ETH and USDC/ETH.

Pooling LINK/ETH for 8 months

Let’s say you pooled 1,070.77 LINK and 19.75 ETH into UniswapV2 on 18 May, 2020. LINK was around $3.78 and ETH was $214.73. You received about 145.43 UniswapV2 LP tokens representing a total value of $8,482.94.

As of 7 Jan 2021 these LP tokens equal to about 1,590.04 LINK and 21.80 ETH, and a total value of $52,242.37. That’s a 515% increase of your stack.

If you were simply hodling your initial 1,070.77 LINK and 19.75 ETH, the total value of your stake would be $41,249.67 representing a 386% increase of your stack.

Pooling LINK/ETH would increase the value of your stack much more than simply hodling.

Pooling USDC/ETH for 1 month

Let’s say you pooled 20,000 USDC and 33 ETH at the beginning of December when ETH was about $600. You would receive about 0.00064 UniswapV2 LP tokens representing a total value of almost $40,000.

As of 7 Jan 2021 these LP tokens would be worth about $59,000. If you were simply hodling the USDC and ETH in your wallet, they would be worth about $60,000.

In this case, you would be slightly better off hodling, but even when pooling your stack increased by 50%. Where’s the loss? Well, if you look into the composition of your pool share, you will see you now have 30,000 USDC and 25 ETH. The pool “sold” for you 8 ETH at an average price of 1,250 USDC. That’s higher than ETH all time high as of writing, because your sell price is subsidised by the fees collected from the pool’s transaction volume.

If ETH price continues to climb, your ETH amount will go further down, while USDC will rise. However, when the market crashes, the pool will keep rebalancing your stack the other way around, increasing your ETH and decreasing your USDC. And that’s a good thing.

Pooling tips

The sustainability of UniswapV2 pools is very correlated to their daily volume. If you are risk-averse, you should pick pools of tokens paired with stablecoins that have both high liquidity and high daily volume. If you want ot maximise your gains, you should pick pools that have low liquidity but high daily volume. If you are super safe, you could pool into DAI-USDC, DAI-USDT or USDC-USDT.

During market crashes, if you hold LPs of the token of interest paired with a stablecoin, the price decrease of that token means your stack value drops, but the amount of that token in your stack increases, offsetting some of your losses (unlike hodling, where if you simply hodl, you really get rekt, and not by the impermanent loss :P).

If you hold LPs of the token of interest paired with ETH, you are exposed on many more fronts. If ETH price increases, your stack will have less ETH but more of the token. However, when the market crashes, and usually BTC, ETH and alts crash together, the value of your stack will decrease fast, as both ETH and the token price decreases.

Additionally, the point of entry into the pool is crucial. The best situation for a pool participant is when the price oscillates within some narrow bands, or has a constant uptrend since entering the pool. Your gains over time from price increase and fees will cover the reduction of the amount of the token, or price decreases.

However, entering a pool during the token’s all time high (ATH) may result in a decrease of the value of your stack in case of a price fall or market crash. That said, if your pool pairs the token with a stablecoin, the overall stack decrease will be lower than if you would simply held the token in your wallet.

Trendering discounted access for liquidity providers

Pooling is good for you, especially on stablecoin pairs. And liquidity is king. That is why I will offer discounted access to the Trendering Dapp and Private Telegram group for the liquidity providers of DAI/TRND and ETH/TRND UniswapV2 pools.

You already have to hold 170 TRND to access the Trendering Private Telegram group. The next Trendering Dapp update will bring new features to the Pool Monitoring, and you will need to hold 130 TRND to use the Dapp.

However, liquidity providers will have to hold either 170 DAI/TRND or 3.44 ETH/TRND UniswapV2 LP tokens to access both the Dapp and the Private group. That roughly translates to providing 64 TRND + equivalent DAI or ETH into the UniswapV2 pools.

PS. Here is a nice tool to check the current structure and value of any Uniswap or Sushiswap LP.

Pools Monitoring & AIM Pilot: Dev Update.08

Recently I deployed updated Tokens Monitoring (also known as Mainnet Monitoring). Crucial new features include deployer nametag detection, so you won’t miss the next token by “Yearn: Deployer” and the initial version of the code analysis.

Code analysis compares the core token functions against a Base Token. It is useful to notice the “extra” code. It not always means it is malicious, but it makes easier to judge yourself. In the example below, it detects a section of code implementing a blacklist mechanism:

This feature is pretty rough around the edges at the moment, and highlights a lot of things. As I build up the safe patterns, it will evolve and get more user-friendly.

Pools Monitoring

Today I am deploying the updated Pools Monitoring (formerly known as Uniswap Monitoring). It monitors new pools created on Uniswap and Sushiswap. I want to include Balancer next.

New features include monitoring of all new pools, not just the ones paired with ETH. You will see new pools created with USDT, USDC, DAI or any other token. This means you will also see the Token-Token pools.

AIM Pilot

I have devised a strategy aimed at Uniswap that would potentially work well as the AIM Pilot. The main condition for this strategy is Uniswap keeping its daily volume at a good amount. It not necessarily needs brand new pools or tokens. It should scale relatively well, however I plan to include a per-address cap. It is a pilot after all. I hope to start it by the EOY.

From the user perspective, it would be similar to providing liquidity to Uniswap, but through the Dapp: you would need to satisfy the increased TRND holding requirement (read about it in the next section) and then supply to the AIM smart contract a pair of DAI + xTRND (please note, I do mean a pair, not staking a single UniV2 LP token). You would receive AIM share tokens in return, representing your AIM pool share.

The contract would lock your xTRND for a certain period of time called an Epoch, and operate using the pooled DAI. Once the epoch is finished and the lock is released, you would be able to claim the DAI profits or withdraw your profits and the original DAI + xTRND tokens using the AIM share tokens.

The AIM Pilot would be Epoch 0. The investment ratio during this epoch would be 1 xTRND : 1 DAI. This means that today, you would need to hold $5 worth of xTRND to invest 100 DAI.

When you claim your DAI profits, there will be a 3% success fee on any DAI profit above your initial DAI deposit. This fee would be split 3 ways, each 1% going to: DAI/TRND liquidity providers, DAI/xTRND liquidity providers, and the dev. Liquidity providers would need to stake their UniV2 LP tokens with the AIM smart contract to be eligible.

When you withdraw your deposit using the AIM share tokens, the AIM share tokens are burned and you get your DAI + xTRND back. However, there will be a 2% withdrawal fee on your xTRND, split 2 ways: 1% going to the dev, and 1% going to the farming incentive for the ETH/TRND pool.

The incentive for the ETH/TRND pool will also be the farming of the recycled xTRND once the Dapp and the DAO begin to consume it. And yes, about the Dapp…

Dapp is free, but

The Trendering Dapp has always been free. The requirement to hold 13 TRND means you can freely test the Dapp without paying anything, and you only risk the TRND token price swings during your tests.

I plan to add certain data aspects built for the AIM into the Dapp along the AIM Pilot. This will help me monitor things, and may help you as well. As such, the Dapp should be moving to become more exclusive as time goes by. With this in mind, I plan to increase the Dapp requirement to 130 TRND by next week. However, this requirement can decrease in the future as well.

The DAO consumes xTRND during the proposal submissions and voting. Additionally, some elements of the Dapp will need to consume xTRND to work. For example, upvoting/downvoting token listings or running the live price/tx tracker may consume small amounts of xTRND per request. But this is further down the line.

I am reading the Trendering Private group voices on making it more exclusive as well, and I am inclined to increase its requirement similarly, to something like 170 TRND. Let’s do it this week? This time the requirement would be open to decreases as well.

How is my AIM

A little backstory first. I have been observing crypto since the beginning, but I am a conservative. I have put small amounts of capital into it around the end of 2016. I caught the Bitcoin train till the peak of 2017 EOY. I made mistakes along the way. I could have tripled my capital with LTC, but I sold at $89 while two weeks later it was above $300. At least Charlie sold.

Still, I made my first whole Bitcoin with LTC. I managed to get in at 0.0069 and get out at 0.018. I continue to have that one Bitcoin in a wallet somewhere, because I am sentimental like that. And most likely a maximalist.

Throughout the years I have been mainly developing algos that work with CEXes. Conservative strategies that keep their cool but thrive in the bull market. When I was about to exit XRP, I first put it through my bot routine, increasing the XRP stack by 100% in less than two weeks. Of course, my XRP position was nowhere profitable overall, because this token is the very definition of a shitcoin, but still the outcome was less painful than could have been.

Then came the DEX/DeFi craze. I was hoping to flip my LTC for BTC again (you can see I am fond of LTC) but as that seemed unlikely, four months ago I converted all my LTC into ETH, worth a bit less than four new iPhones. I have put it into a stealth trial run of AIM. Through many weird blockchain operations that stack is now worth Lambos. The lack of updates recently is mainly due to me getting lost in AIM.

The main problem is scalability, meaning how to make it work for all of you together and at once. My end goal with AIM is a conservative black box that protects your capital, makes little money in the bear, big money in the bull and interesting money in the blockchain opportunities.

Watch “The Big Short” if you have not yet. Christian Bale has found and exploited a market opportunity. AIM can find and exploit blockchain opportunities. I like to say that “Knowledge is power” while I listen to “POWER” by Kanye West. Am I a white nerd who likes rap and anime? Lets do a proper AMA some day.

Blockchain is just getting started, so do not worry about missed opportunities. More will come so start looking for them now before anyone else. And expect more things to come from me.

PS. Take a look at Blockstack. Will the next big thing be DeFi on Bitcoin? Or will it be *the* thing?

xTRND cap & DAI LGE: Dev Update.07

In short, many things are happening simultaneously:

  1. All the remaining xTRND that you farmed are airdropped to your addresses. I would like to thank all the liquidity providers for their continuing support of the Trendering protocol.
  2. xTRND farming is over. xTRND minting is finished and the total, final supply is set at 1,300,000 tokens.
  3. I am opening two new Uniswap pools: DAI-TRND and DAI-xTRND.
  4. I am announcing an incentivised liquidity generation event for these two new pools. From my stash, I am settings aside 4,000 TRND [about $26,000 atm and $120k ath ;)] at 2,000 per pool. Using the Staking Leaderboard system I will publicly monitor these two pools for four weeks. By counting how much liquidity you put in and for how many seconds, at the end of the four week period I will award each pool with 2,000 TRND, proportionally to the LGE participants in that pool. As I mentioned in the chats, I hate holding capital hostage, so this is a free and open LGE with no strings attached. This is no core.
  5. I am posting another article about AIM in a moment.
  6. I am fixing the bugs in the Dapp (it has been a shit show lately, sorry) and working towards the new features, implementing the xTRND utility token within the Dapp and getting ready to the release of Trendering DAO. In that order of priority.
  7. Reminder: if you hold that $14 of liquidity in the TRND-xTRND Uniswap pool, please remove it. Let’s just kill that pool.

Expect more.

Staking & Farming Update

What’s beyond the 1,000,000 xTRND supply? It’s your call.

According to the Staking Leaderboard, the TRND staking & xTRND farming has almost reached the 1,000,000 currently minted supply. I personally did not wish for it to be capped at this point, but I know some of you want that. While the Trendering DAO is being established, in the meantime I propose we all decide with our wallets. What does it mean?

If you wish to have more xTRND minted, continue staking & farming. If you wish otherwise, unstake and reduce the xTRND farming rate. For every new xTRND airdrop beyond the 1,000,000 supply, the appropriate amount of xTRND will be minted.

This is a temporary state, as the Trendering DAO should be fully functional in about 10 days. Any related vote can happen then. I think this is also a good opportunity for the smaller players to get some xTRND before the inevitable minting cap, Dapp v2 and xTRND becoming essential to use the Dapp’s full potential.

Dapp v2: Dev Update.06

Backend development is boring to put into words, so I have been working on a demo Dapp v2 to at least a bit visualise what is happening and what are my plans. Today, I want to share with you some parts of the demo. Later, it will be available to actually roam around yourself.

Control

The new Control dashboard will be an important part of the Dapp. Here, you will be able to see how much fuel (xTRND) you have left in your Fuel Depo, and deposit more xTRND to be used inside the Dapp. The idea is to use an L2 solution like zkSync to make spending fuel fast and gas-less. Also, all deposited xTRND would go back straight to the staking rewards pool.

Governance

The Governance section will have an area to submit and discuss drafts. Since each Trendering Improvement Proposal submission requires a substantial xTRND payment (it most likely will start with 1,000 xTRND and be adjustable by the DAO itself), there needs to be a place to freely publish and discuss draft proposals.

Monitoring

Probably the biggest change in the Dapp v2 will happen with the Monitoring section. I want it to be more agnostic and better organised. For one, instead of the simple Mainnet monitoring of latest verified tokens, I want to have a global monitor of all interesting tokens. These will be divided into Trending (selected based on your upvotes and downvotes!), Moving (selected based on price volatility) and New (the latest verified tokens).

Whenever there will be a token mentioned in the Dapp, you will be able to upvote or downvote it, or change your vote. You can vote once per token, and each vote will consume 1 xTRND, adjustable if we see spam or abuse.

Additionally, each token will have a its own comments area, and you will be able to open a trading view and select which pools to trade on. The trading view will have a few key features I am excited about: “Buy & Approve”, “Sell Your Initial”, and a price chart visualising each trade.

Once I introduce a token contract template and a smart timelock contract that can hold any ERC20 token for a fixed and known period of time (30, 90 and 180 days), the Dapp will be able to automatically give a “Verified” badge to the tokens that satisfy Trendering conditions.

Pools

I want to expand the Uniswap monitoring to track not only new Token-ETH pools, but any new pool on Uniswap (and other DEXes). Additionally, I want to have a similar categorisation: Trending Pools (based on your votes), Moving Pools (based on fees, liquidity and volume volatility) and New Pools. The pools will also link to the trading view mentioned earlier.

And as you probably can see, all these little parts are feeding back to the AIM. I wonder where we end up with all of this, but expect more things to come.

Trendering DAO concludes its first vote on the TIP-01

Moments ago, at 13:00 UTC, the first ever Trendering DAO vote has been concluded. This Trendering Improvement Proposal (TIP) discussed an adjustment to the TRND requirement for the Trendering Private telegram group. The vote has passed by 4700 to 1447.

The voting process was executed using two smart contracts, FOR and AGAINST. Each contract received xTRND from voters. The contract with the higher xTRND balance won. A few days after the vote, the xTRND balance from both contracts will be released back to the staking rewards pool.

What happens now?

Since TIP-01 is approved, the following measure will begin in the Trendering Private group:

After every 24 hours period, starting from now, whenever the amount of members in the Trendering Private group is above 300, the TRND requirement to stay in the group will increase by 1 TRND.

This means the first TRND requirement increase will happen tomorrow afternoon.

This first Trendering DAO vote showed us we need several improvements to the governance process. The first one is a public discussion area to formulate and analyse proposals before they are put to vote. The second one is a nicer voting interface inside the Dapp.

Overall, this vote proved the potential of the Trendering DAO, generating lots of debates and many interesting ideas for the private group, the Dapp and the DAO itself.

I look forward to setting up the additional DAO interfaces for the community to drive the Trendering protocol.

xTRND, DAO, GitHub: Dev Update.05

Today, I am introducing Trendering DAO Governance to the dapp, explaining how xTRND will fuel the DAO and sharing development updates.

Trendering is progressing. Apparently it has been in the CoinGecko top trending searches for the last 24 hours! The community is growing, and the Trendering Private 13 telegram group is on fire. Many members report attractive gains, but at the same time the discussion is getting intense as more new people join in.

The Trendering DAO introduced today will make its first Trendering Improvement Proposal (TIP) exactly about that. To see the Governance tab and join the discussion, simply go to the dapp.