Introducing Alfa: Dev Update.09

Today I can officially introduce the feature that has been live in the Dapp for the last few days. Say hello to Alfa.

Monitoring new tokens and pools is a fine degen activity, but more often than not it is just garbage there. It is time to start looking back, at the things that are already in circulation.

Alfa Tokens

Within the Token Monitor you will find the new Alfa Tokens tab. The data there is based on approx. the last hour of retail trades from Uniswap and Sushiswap. By retail I mean actual humans. Front-runs and wash-trades are excluded to the most extent possible.

The default sort displays the token list according to the most positive capital flow. You can also see how many different tokens have been recently traded. Sometimes it is more than 500. Sometimes it is less than 150 (this can be a good moment to look at them and trade, as usually this is the time more optimised traders purchase specific tokens, while gas is low).

The best play here is observing the capital flow, the BUY-SELL Volume. If a token of your interest has a negative capital flow, before you buy first observe it until the capital flow goes positive. This can indicate a reversal and you can ride an upwards wave until the capital flow goes negative again, which in turn may be a good moment to sell.

Alfa Pools

Within the Pools Monitor you will find the new Alfa Pools tab. The data there is similar to the Alfa Tokens, but is extended by the Liquidity size and Hourly APR – the projected 1-year earnings from providing liquidity in the pool without compounding, based on the volume from the last hour.

High Hourly APR indicates very active pools with low liquidity. Most often this means new tokens with high hype and volatility. Degens’ favourites.

More Alfa

One thing missing from these two new tabs is a visualisation of change. After all, it is hard to stare at the monitor all the time, and what is really important are the upward-downward changes of these indicators. This is coming.

Another tab I want to introduce soon is the Alfa Stream. This will basically show you every Uniswap and Sushiswap human trade, with easy filter to extract known wallets, whale trades and look deeper into specific tokens or pools.

What about AIM?

Like I mentioned today on Telegram, I may be able to launch AIM Pilot by the end of March, using a proxy contract that would lock-in the xTRND and staking participants, but would enable DAI transfer to an end user address. This is not optimal in terms of security, decentralisation and non-custodial contracts, but should streamline AIM public testing.

Macro Alfa

How much time do we have? Well, we will know soon enough. If by early March the total crypto market cap goes back down to $1T, we are done. Winter is back.

However, if that does not happen, and the total market cap keeps the upward trend, we should reach the top sometime in August.

How much time do we really have? Well, my mind is planning for the next 4 years. The thing to look at will be 2025-27.

I do not want to be misunderstood, and I am not a prophet, but the deconstruction of the Old World Order that was very visible in the last 12 months, has been 20 years in the making. Believe it or not, but the first crack, leading to the collapse of the world economy as we know it, happened on 9/11.

On that day the US empire survived, but lost on 3 fronts: its invincibility image has been badly disturbed; its war machine marched en-masse outside its borders at an immense cost to the treasury; and its powerful financial market has been put on the path to collapse thanks to the unprecedented government intervention both towards the elites (saving the stocks) and the people (inflating the housing market).

The bubble popped in 2008. It took the system around a decade to heal, but the scars did not go away. When the Wuhan Virus turned into a global pandemic, the system was still not fully recovered, and it showed. The Old Word Order, the global village, quickly shut itself down, and chaos ensued.

But chaos is a ladder, after all. It is hard to say without evidence, but the parties that benefit the most from the very rapid way in which the world had to adapt to the new circumstances, seem to be China, Russia and Iran. The global eyes have turned within, everyone trying to fight the Wuhan Virus.

Coincidently, the three places at which the next world conflict may erupt are the South-East China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suwalki Gap.

China would like to control its near-seas to push out the presence of the very powerful US Fleet, and exert more control over its neighbours, especially Taiwan. At the same time, pushing out the US Fleet will help in implementing their Belt and Road initiative.

Iran would very much like to control the Strait of Hormuz and freely export its oil to the highest bidder. A less US-dominated sea route there would fit nicely with the Belt and Road initiative as well.

Russia would really like to rebuild its old area of influence from the Soviet era, to surround itself with satellite republics, insulating its core state from adversaries, mainly NATO, and making it easier to transfer natural resources out. The ante is up, since USA has to flirt with Russia to counter China. In the event of a Russian-Chinese alliance and a favourable EU, and the Belt and Road initiative in place, the resulting free-trade area will dominate the rest of the world by far.

The USA no longer has the biggest and most dominant economy in the world, but it still has the strongest army.

Adding fuel to the fire is the general public, who has been very much stress-tested by the pandemic countermeasures, lockdowns, limitations, and the economic impact. With many clear examples of elites exerting their status and influence to get more, have more and live more, while the regular Joe is silenced and stuck in his home, the general public is not happy.

We have at most 4 years before the storm. What we are doing today in crypto is not just gambling. We are building our future. Who of us and what of it survives, is up to us.

But the Old World days are numbered. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

Dracarys.

3 thoughts on “Introducing Alfa: Dev Update.09

  1. AvatarE

    C – amazing update. Really liked the progress, especially with such a challenging task. I am in full agreement with your description of global events to come. The AIM contains AI aspects (if I’m not mistaken) does it learn as it progresses? also after each epoch does the AIM exit all positions and start again or does it still hold funds in certain positions. I hope it pilots as described ca~ end of March. I for one will be taking part.

    Reply
    1. CC Post author

      The exiting aspect will depend on the outcome, but to give participants the option to realise the max profit, it should exit all positions before the end of the epoch.

      Reply
  2. AvatarMichael

    I don’t know you C, but after reading your blogs, I feel like I do. And I appreciate that you’re not just looking at the tiny corner of the world that is Defi, but much further afield. The way you comprehensively and cohesively communicate your thoughts makes me trust you as much as if I knew who you really are.
    The macro situation is the only way that crypto has a chance of escaping the 4 year cycle. I’m not holding my breath tho.
    You’re right about the geopolitical and economic consideration – things haven’t looked this much like a powder keg since WW2. I’m praying things are settled peacefully tho.
    I’m fascinated as to how the AIM works. Sounds very different to your average trading bot – would love to hear more on this.
    Anyway, looking forward to being a part of the community.

    Reply

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