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Jun 30, 2023 / Do the Math

Ok, so here’s what itches my brain. Say you have a $1,000 and go all-in on every trade in a bull market.

If you make 100% on a trade, then you 2x and have $2,000.

If you make 200% on a trade, then you 3x and have $3,000.

If you make 300% on a trade, then you 4x and have $4,000.

But if you make 100% on one trade and 100% on another trade, you also have $4,000 and 4x.

Cool, cool. Now we all aim for a 10x but that’s “only” 900%, still a nice $10,000 ;)

Ok, ok, but we degens live through bear markets too, going down 90% is no biggy. Or is it?

If you lose 90% on a 10x, you’re back at square one with $1,000.

If you lose 90% on a 4x, you just lost $600 on your $1,000 initial and have to work up from $400. Which is a big deal, cause you’re now way more handicapped.

You need a 10x to just get back to that last 4x at $4,000.

And we all know crypto bear is nowhere as nice as –90% down. It hits you with –99% before you know what happened. Down here, you are rekt and in need of a 100x to recover.

We’re on the verge of a bull market. On the way to the top, you’ll do anything. But how will you get your life back when you get there? Protect your profits along the way. Stay hungry, stay foolish, stay degen. But! stay focused. DYOR. NFA. YOLO.

Jun 16, 2023 / Plan C! Dev Update.14

Hello world! So I’ve been devising something I call Plan C. This of course implies that Plan A (AIM) and B (ReBoot) failed, if it wasn’t already evident. All these plans were good puns but hopefully Plan C will work. Three times a charm, right?

So, Plan C is not limited to, but involves deploying stuff on Arbitrum. Because fees are low and transactions are fast, I want to use Arbitrum to deploy the TRND/xTRND betting prediction market there. But there’s no TRND/xTRND on Arbitrum, you ask?

Well, let’s bring it there. And since bridges are hopeless, I’ll give you something better. I just took a snapshot of all TRND/xTRND/AIMDAI holders and LPs. I will take another snapshot in about eight weeks (exact time & date TBA later). And then I’ll double your stack!

Meaning, I’ll take the average from both snapshots, and I’ll airdrop TRND and xTRND straight to you on Arbitrum. You will need it for the future features of Trendering coming to Arbitrum.

The airdrop mechanics are as follows:

1. TRND and xTRND mainnet token holders receive the same amount on Arbitrum
2. LPs receive the same amount of TRND and xTRND on Arbitrum as their LP positions hold on the mainnet
3. AIMDAI token holders receive the same amount of xTRND on Arbitrum as they hold AIMDAI on the mainnet
4. AIMDAI token holders and LPs share all the remaining TRND and xTRND that cannot be attributed to anyone (like from burned LP tokens etc.)

I plan to set up a simple UI to monitor your rewards. I’ll gradually reveal the rest of Plan C as my work continues and I have things to show for. Godspeed!

Jun 09, 2023 / Alpha Shit

This post is offensive. If you’re a snowflake, you definitely should read it.

So alpha. Alpha calls, alpha males. Alpha shit is the essence of shit coining, right? Yet almost noone understands what it means.

The pleb fall for the cheap alpha, the Tate of fake flex. The “Oh look at me and my cojones.” Yet you have none.

You know who has? Warren Buffet. He’s the real alpha male. Why the fck would he fck a different girl every night. He’s the real alpha and found his alpha female long ago, and was married to her for 52 years like an ultra-precious treasure she was. May she rest in peace.

Meanwhile Andrew fcks some gamma cunts thinking he’s the alpha. And needs to remind everyone every hour on twitter. Cause he’s so alpha that the rest of the world forgets about it in 60 minutes. While Mr Buffet says nothing, eats breakfasts at McDonald’s, makes billions legally, and without flexing once is the unquestionable alpha among the investing community.

Be a man, find a queen, start a family, get a dog, build a house, plant a tree, take care of all of this like your life depended on it (cause it does). Don’t call yourself a king. Act like one.

And don’t follow self-proclaimed leech kings into battle. Only clowns do.

Real men follow true kings to fight for what is right.

This applies to both life and crypto. Salut! 🫡

PS. Maybe next month we see what happens to TRND. Maybe sooner ;)

PPS. Technically, Buffet separated with his first wife in ’77 and lived with his companion and later second wife, but they all seemed to have an emotional triangle through the years. He found two alphas, it seems. No wonder he’s the man. Macro update

Short term the war in Ukraine is heading towards a cease fire or peace talks. Long term we will get another major conflict started sometime in 2026-27. If Nostradamus is not just some crazy rando, then expect an interesting game played out in 2027. Sure, China can try invading Taiwan but what if the USA/UK pushes India to make a larger fuss around Kashmir and Tibet, and Uygurs?

The social media land is set, everyone knows the Tibetans are oppressed, the little Lama is imprisoned and the religious Uygurs are sent to camps and forced into slave labour.

Ok, but then China can trigger Pakistan to do its own fuss too on the other side of India.

All the while Russia simply goes at Ukraine again.

Hello, World War.

Meanwhile coming back to short term, Gary’s SEC is showing some fake muscles and trying to make a stand against crypto. Well we may dump a bit but in the long term the whole crypto industry is as unstoppable now as the internet was during the Dot Com bubble burst. Sure, some major players died, but the system continued.

What Gary seems to be aiming at is a hail mary to catch the last chance at hurting crypto enough so it becomes irrelevant. And Gary is the hero that saves the dollar. Unfortunately for him, it’s already too late for that.

The curious Chinese opening towards crypto in recent months may signal an interesting play the Party is doing. They blocked their citizens from getting rekt at the 2021 ATH, but are opening now, when it’s the last call to hop on the train to the next ATH.

And while crypto cannot compete among the institutional investors, dominated by boomers and the dollar, it for sure can compete among the retail investors. And if recent years are any proof, social media consists 100% of retail and if you skew their opinion towards something (like, I dunno, that America is shit and the dollar is worthless) then it really takes over the mindset of the global society. And the market follows.

Thus I think China could target the hegemony of the dollar not in the actual sense, but in the sense of perception. And perception is everything.

Therefore, brace yourselves. Crypto may win, and win hard. But we may die hard along the way. Valhalla awaits!

PS. F*ck the SEC.

Jul 15, 2022 / AIM DAIO

DAIO stands for Decentralised Autonomous Investment Organisation. This specific DAO is controlled by the aimDAI holders. Acronym puns intended. Join AIM DAIO on Snapshot »

Long story short, AIM did not go according to plan at all. Instead it went to zero. In the hopes that our club is full of smart people, I propose an initial vote to establish if the majority of aimDAI holders agrees with that.

Proposal 001 is live on Snapshot and voting is open for 3 days starting now »

Apart from the 1.1 ETH pledged by Trendering as the initial capital injection, any other donations are welcome. It is time to get ready for another summer. The breakeven goal is set at $222,000. We casually need a 100x, we instinctively want a 1000x.

A new chapter begins, but where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

May 20, 2022 / Bitcoin is *not* currency, stablecoins are

There are many narratives around crypto and its various assets. You have to know by now that most are bullshit made to acquire exit liquidity. If you do not know by now, you are the exit liquidity most of the times. So what is crypto, really?

Bitcoin is not a currency. It is the digital gold. Its price varies by a lot, but overall it is a good store of value long-term. It is scarce but has no real transactional utility. Buy low, sell high, buy low again and keep it safe on a piece of paper. Use to invest in the rest. Litecoin is digital silver.

Ethereum is either crude oil or gas, pick your favourite. It runs things and gets burned. Its price varies by a lot but at least it has strong transactional utility. It is not scarce, but sometimes it is deflationary. Alt L1s like Solana or Fantom seem to be biogas or something. They have no future. Await an alt L1 that seems like solar or atomic energy (some say Cardano, some say Stacks – but beware of fortune tellers and DYOR!).

Altcoins are stonks. Shitcoins are penny stonks. Watch the Wolf of Wall Street. Act accordingly. Your shitcoin has utility? Then its price should not change. Congrats, you created a stablecoin.

Stablecoins are currency. You can buy things with them as the price is fairly stable. They all claim to be pegged to the dollar but in truth they are not. Instead, they are like the constellation of fiat currencies – some are like the bolivar, the ruble or the turkish lira and can depeg hard (hey terra). Some are like the dollar or euro (usdc, dai) and are pegged like a rock. DYOR! A stablecoin may claim to be worth $1 but that is just someone’s opinion. Look for the facts.

Any marvellous narrative beyond what I wrote is bullshit. Use it to pump your shitcoin but do not delude yourselves into believing any of it. Cut your losses fast and DCA the dips. Leverage with caution. Keep your funds safe. Own your keys. Fiat when necessary. Do not marry your hodls. Do not hold on dear life.

Arm yourselve because no one else here will save you. The odds will betray you.

Crypto is not a safe place. It is a piranha club.

Feb 22, 2022 / More Macro Alfa

Paragraphs below were written on Jan 7, 2022:

The first “Macro Alfa” section got really nice feedback, and I have been encouraged to continue my geopolitical ramblings, so here it is.

Timelines are a funny thing. Last time, I expected the market cap top to happen in August, and that was not a bad take as a very local high happened on Sep 7, 2021. However, the August top was a consensus among the crypto community, so many of the folks acted preemptively and we had the all time high happening May 12.

Last time, I expected we have 4 years till the storm. But it wont start overnight, and many events will unfold along the way. Even so, I hoped these would start happening later on. But like with crypto prediction, once enough observers agree on something, their observations affects their actions, and this in turn affects the timeline, and the initial observation is no longer accurate, because many people are preparing for it… triggering the events earlier than anticipated.

Last time, I mentioned the three hot spots where a major conflict can start: South-East China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suwalki Gap. Well, two of these are already in a state of hybrid war, or something one might call a sustainable war – a local conflict with little violence that benefits both sides in some way.

And I am beginning to think there will be no great world war again. There will be many small local conflicts, pushbacks, ethnic clashes and social disruptions. I begin to think these conflicts will be fought mostly by civilians, private armies & the little green men, because “democracy”. And I begin to be certain that we wont see the start of World War III… because we are already in it. But it is subtle.

So, to recap recent events. In the South-East China Sea, China is testing Taiwan, and vice versa. China regularly sends squadrons after squadrons into Taiwanese air defence space. Taiwan performs exercises, buys more weapons, and is doing some silicon chip market manipulations to emphasise its importance in the global supply chains.

In the Suwalki Gap, Belarus with help from Russia, is using Turkey playbook by waging immigration war on its neighbours: Lithuania and Poland. By organising direct transport of migrants from the Middle East, Belarus has created a very visual humanitarian crisis among the borders of Lithuania and Poland.

Paragraphs below were written on Feb 22, 2022:

And on this palindrome day, Putin decided to roll over the separatists republics of eastern Ukraine. The sad part is, this hopefully local conflict benefits everyone except the Ukrainians. Russia wants to get its playground, strategic depth and propaganda shots for the state TV.

USA wants to get Russia into a clusterf*ck to weaken it if it ever colludes with China, also disrupting an important Silk Road route to Europe. The Pentagon equipped Ukraine with lots of Javelins and Stingers, so any Russian ground or air engagement is likely to end in shameful flames, repeating the Taliban playbook when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in the 80s.

China wants to have the USA battling on two fronts. And have the western eyes looking at something else apart from Taiwan.

I have no clue what the EU wants, but neither do they it seems.

So what about the markets? Well, with an escalating war, rising inflation and contracting QE, we are pretty much guaranteed to get rekt. But at least in a volatile manner, so maybe there is a chance for gains in a leveraged casino. But as always: NFA, DYOR.

Feb 15, 2021 / Macro Alfa

How much time do we have? Well, we will know soon enough. If by early March the total crypto market cap goes back down to $1T, we are done. Winter is back.

However, if that does not happen, and the total market cap keeps the upward trend, we should reach the top sometime in August.

How much time do we really have? Well, my mind is planning for the next 4 years. The thing to look at will be 2025-27.

I do not want to be misunderstood, and I am not a prophet, but the deconstruction of the Old World Order that was very visible in the last 12 months, has been 20 years in the making. Believe it or not, but the first crack, leading to the collapse of the world economy as we know it, happened on 9/11.

On that day the US empire survived, but lost on 3 fronts: its invincibility image has been badly disturbed; its war machine marched en-masse outside its borders at an immense cost to the treasury; and its powerful financial market has been put on the path to collapse thanks to the unprecedented government intervention both towards the elites (saving the stocks) and the people (inflating the housing market).

The bubble popped in 2008. It took the system around a decade to heal, but the scars did not go away. When the Wuhan Virus turned into a global pandemic, the system was still not fully recovered, and it showed. The Old Word Order, the global village, quickly shut itself down, and chaos ensued.

But chaos is a ladder, after all. It is hard to say without evidence, but the parties that benefit the most from the very rapid way in which the world had to adapt to the new circumstances, seem to be China, Russia and Iran. The global eyes have turned within, everyone trying to fight the Wuhan Virus.

Coincidently, the three places at which the next world conflict may erupt are the South-East China Sea, the Strait of Hormuz and the Suwalki Gap.

China would like to control its near-seas to push out the presence of the very powerful US Fleet, and exert more control over its neighbours, especially Taiwan. At the same time, pushing out the US Fleet will help in implementing their Belt and Road initiative.

Iran would very much like to control the Strait of Hormuz and freely export its oil to the highest bidder. A less US-dominated sea route there would fit nicely with the Belt and Road initiative as well.

Russia would really like to rebuild its old area of influence from the Soviet era, to surround itself with satellite republics, insulating its core state from adversaries, mainly NATO, and making it easier to transfer natural resources out. The ante is up, since USA has to flirt with Russia to counter China. In the event of a Russian-Chinese alliance and a favourable EU, and the Belt and Road initiative in place, the resulting free-trade area will dominate the rest of the world by far.

The USA no longer has the biggest and most dominant economy in the world, but it still has the strongest army.

Adding fuel to the fire is the general public, who has been very much stress-tested by the pandemic countermeasures, lockdowns, limitations, and the economic impact. With many clear examples of elites exerting their status and influence to get more, have more and live more, while the regular Joe is silenced and stuck in his home, the general public is not happy.

We have at most 4 years before the storm. What we are doing today in crypto is not just gambling. We are building our future. Who of us and what of it survives, is up to us.

But the Old World days are numbered. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.

Jul 31, 2020 / Dev Update.01

TRND opened on Monday at Uniswap ETH-TRND pool. I burned my Uniswap V2 pool liquidity tokens, meaning I cannot pull the pool liquidity out on you.

I destroyed 9,887,000 TRND tokens by executing “finishMinting” on TRND contract to forever limit the total supply to 113,000 TRND tokens: 100,000 distributed via Uniswap without presale, 13,000 in my wallet, unlocked. Don’t expect me to lock them or freeze them. If you want to see this thing developed I need to move them around and test things.

The Telegram group grew from 1 to 368 members, keeps growing, and they are all great to chat with. TRND has just been listed on CoinMarketCap!

I won’t even write about the price. If you saw it, you saw it. Development is ongoing. Today I share the prototype screenshots of the Monitoring tab.

Comments? Follow on TG

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